The creators of this post, Mike and Nate, have asked if I wanted to add some insight about a year ago for baseball season. I said I would but never got around to it. They asked me again to share some insight for DFS purposes, and I thought, “What the hell…let’s go nuts..” This is my first attempt, so don’t be too harsh….
**** DISCLAIMER : I AM BY NO MEANS AN EXPERT, PRO, ETC, NOR DO I CONSIDER MYSELF ONE…..DFS/SPORTS IS SOMETHING I JUST LOVE….I USE BOTH MY HEAD AND MY GUT, SO SOME OF MY PICKS MIGHT BE A LITTLE CRAZY********
I will use pricing from Draftkings as that is what I play on.
PURDUE AT RUTGERS
This 7 o’clock game doesn’t seem like it may not be too interesting for DFS purposes, but it might have some low owned sleepers. Purdue is expecting to score 77 points, per kenpom, and is getting a major tempo boost. Hammons(7900) is the obvious choice for Purdue but I think I will be looking elsewhere. RU is thin on players and weak on the interior, but Hammons seems to either care about games and play balls out or not care at at all. I think this is one of those latter games. I am actually looking at Haas(5100). Haas comes off the bench, but would only need around 20 pts to hit value, something that he could do in a tempo up game. Vince Edwards(5700) could also be in play, as he rebounds a little bit. It all depends if the shot is falling. One intriguing play from this game would be Raphael Davis(5200). Davis has not had the offensive season many had hoped for, but he did put up a game of 16/10 last year vs. Rutgers. If you really need someone cheap, PJ Thompson(3800) is worth a look.
On the other side of the ball, there isn’t much that I like. Purdue is a pretty solid defensive team, and I don’t like targeting any bigs vs. the trees from Purdue. The way to beat Purdue is from the guards, but I am not really looking to take Daniels or Williams. Omari Grier(4100) is cheap, but very inconsistent. He put together a few games where he was around 30 dk pts, but I don’t see that is a tempo down game for RU. The only one I will look at is Col. Sanders(6400). Sanders, a freshman, has had some growing pains this year, but seems to be the most consistent of the bunch. He should get some steals, as Purdue likes to turn the ball over a bit as they can’t feed the post or just let Swanigan touch it.
SYRACUSE AT DUKE
This is going to be one of the games to target a little bit more than others on today’s slate. Syracuse is coming to Duke coming off a huge blowout win vs. Wake. Syracuse really only plays around 6 guys, so you know they will get theirs. One to look at always for the Orange is Micheal Gbinije(8700). Gbinije is very consistent and has triple double upside(which he hasn’t shown as much this year). 8700 is a lot of pay for the previous forward moved to the guards spot. Cooney(6500) and Richardson(6200) are in the mid tier range. Cooney is pretty much a scorer, so if his shots aren’t falling, he will not come close to value, but watch out if they are. Richardson is a bit more intriguing as he does a little bit of everything from scoring to rebounding to assisting. I do like the ‘Cuse bigs, Roberson(6700) and Coleman(4300). Roberson is coming off a huge game vs. Wake and has been extremely solid in 6 or his last 7. Coleman is cheap at 4300 and seems to be better than earlier in the year when he was playing with a nagging injury. The one thing that really worries me is the fact that they are playing at Cameron and lots of fouls seem to be called, as a matter of fact, I think each already has 2. Lydon(6600) could be a GPP flier, but since he doesn’t start, I am not looking his way.
As for Duke, I am not going to spend a lot of time here. There are 5 guys, and they are all pretty much in play because they play pretty much the entire game. Thornton didn’t start last game, so I see him getting about 15 min of playing time just to give the others their rest. Everyone will probably be looking at Ingram or Kennard, but I will actually be looking towards Warsaw native Marshall Plumlee(6700). Plumlee has been playing out of his mind lately, and a month ago I would have never suggested using him. He could be in line for a doub doub against the ‘Cuse zone.
TEXAS TECH VS. TCU
This game has one of the lowest O/U of the slate, but also one of the closest spreads. I am not looking to target much from this game, but if it goes into OT, you’ll be able to get some extra points out of players. Both of these teams play at a pretty slow tempo, so I would;t be looking at too many of the players from this game. I think Chauncey Collins(4800) is worth a look for TCU. He plays off the bench but gets starters minutes. He doesn’t rack up a ton of rebounds or assists, so he needs to get his from scoring. Malique Trent(5500) could be very low owned. Many will look at his game logs and see his last game, in which he played limited minutes with 4 fouls. Trent is a decent defender who will get some steals, points, and assists. If this was a higher tempoed game, I would be all over him.
As for Texas Tech, they play a big rotation and seem to distribute their stats. There isn;t a true go to scorer that you can count on. Someone I think people will look past is Justin Gray(4200). Once again, game log looks awful vs. Baylor, but I see TCU bult kind of like Kansas St, where he put up 40 dk pts. Will he get 40 again, probably not, but for 4200, I might take that chance.
OKLAHOMA VS IOWA ST.
This might be a game like we had a few weeks back where Oklahoma took on Kansas and they went into multiple overtimes. Oklahoma has Hield(10,200), Woodard(7600), Cousins(7400), Spangler(7800), and Lattin(6400). Woodard has been very consitent lately, and also has some high upside. I think he may go overlooked in this game. Cousins has been struggling lately, and since DK jacked the price up on Lattin, I think I will be looking elsewhere. Spangler is expensive, has been playing hurt, but has had good success vs. Iowa State in the past. You need to get some Oklahoma in your lineups, and he would be one of the options that I would look towards other than Woodard and Hield. Buddy is amazing, truly amazing, but is very scoring dependent. He does fall into some rebounds and assists, but at 10,200, I would want consistent peripherals. When his shot is on, it is on, and Buddy does play well on the road. Building a solid team around him might be tough though. If you can get him in, do it.
Iowa State is another team that players see a ton of minutes unless foul trouble occurs. I am really liking Monte(8800), Niang(9100), and Matt Thomas(5300). Thomas is a nice cheaper way to get some exposure to this game at 5300. I think Niang has his way with Spangler, and adds some nice peripherals in the highest paced game of the night. Monte’s price has gone up since the beginning of the season when it never moved, but I think he is also worth a look. Nader(7000) has been playing well lately, especially rebounding like a mad man. If you don;t use Niang, I think you could use Nader and upgrade another position. Nader, though, can have some down games, so I would really try to fit Niang in. McKay(8000) could also be a very sneaky play as I think many will look around him. McKay plays MUCH better at home, and in a high paced game with his high motor, I think a double double is a lock for him. He’s usually last in the pecking order offensively, but his ability to rebound and get put backs could be huge. I would really try to get Niang or McKay in, Nadar for some savings.
Good luck to everyone on the slate, but since DFS is NOT gambling, luck should not be involved.