Bracket Projection – February 19

Five of my Top 10 teams lost already this week, and it continues to look like we are in for a wild and crazy March.  Iowa lost to Penn State, and Maryland lost to Minnesota.  Really?  Oklahoma is in a slight tailspin and has fallen into a tie for third in the Big 12.  Kansas and Villanova right now are locks for 1 seeds, while the third and fourth are completely up for grabs.

Before you get the updated bracket, here are a few things you need to know.

Duke vs. Notre Dame

Many of the brackets on the Matrix have Duke significantly ahead of Notre Dame, and I can’t really figure out why.  Not only did ND win at Duke, let’s look at their resumes right now.

Duke 20-6 (9-4), RPI 13, SOS 8, Top 50 (4-5), Top 100 (12-6…thanks to NC State sneaking back in at 100).
Notre Dame 18-7 (9-4), RPI 20, SOS 13, Top 50 (4-7), Top 100 (7-7).

Duke’s best road/neutral win – at UNC.  ND’s best road/neutral win – vs. Iowa in Orlando.  These two teams are not 1-2 seeds apart like most have them.  I have them 15 and 16 overall.

Florida vs. Alabama

 

Good ol’ Joey Brackets has Florida as a 7 seed and Alabama as one of the last four teams in as a 12 seed.  Just like the above situation, Alabama just won at Florida.  Let’s look at the resumes.

Florida 17-9 (8-5), RPI 31, SOS 10, Top 50 (2-6), Top 100 (7-8)
Alabama 16-9 (7-6), RPI 30, SOS 12, Top 50 (5-5), Top 100 (7-8)

Florida’s best road/neutral win – vs. St. Joe’s.  Alabama’s best road/neutral win – vs. ND.  5 seed difference?  Come on, Joe.

Five Teams Rising

 

*Miami just continues to win.  They will be extremely dangerous in March.
*The most important win of the week may have been by St. Joe’s over Dayton.  The Hawks move off the bubble for now.
*Bill & Mary took it to UNC Wilmington by double digits on Thursday night to look like the class of the CAA.
*Seton Hall is a tournament team, and I have them solidly in.
*Utah continues to rack up computer points due to inflated Pac 12 numbers.

Five Teams Falling

*Pittsburgh, at home, needed OT to beat Wake Forest, who is now 1-13 in the ACC.  The resume is thin.
*S. Carolina backed up the blowout loss to Kentucky by laying an egg at Missouri.  They are headed closer and closer to the bubble.
*Providence…woof.
*Cincinnati lost to Tulsa, which boots them from the bracket for now.
*St. Bonaventure had a chance to sneak in the bracket, but then decided to go out and completely crap the bed at LaSalle.

BRACKET

Last Four In:  Oregon St., VCU, Butler, Clemson

Outside Looking In: (69) Tulsa, (70) Cincinnati, (71) Washington, (72) Temple, (73) Duke West, (74) G. Washington

East

1 Villanova vs. 16 No. Florida/Hampton – Brooklyn
8 Colorado vs. 9 LSU
5 Texas vs. 12 St. Mary’s
4 Duke vs. 13 Hawaii – Spokane
3 W. Virginia vs. 14 Yale – Providence
6 Purdue vs. 11 Oregon St./Clemson
7 California vs. 10 UConn
2 Miami vs. 15 Belmont – Raleigh

West

1 Oklahoma vs. 16 Weber State – Oklahoma City
8 Alabama vs. 9 St. Joseph’s
5 Indiana vs. 12 Chattanooga
4 Arizona vs. 13 Stony Brook – Denver
3 Maryland vs. 14 Bill & Mary – Providence
6 Utah vs. 11 Pittsburgh
7 Seton Hall vs. 10 Wisconsin
2 Virginia vs. 15 Winthrop – Brooklyn

Midwest

1 Kansas vs. 16 Wagner/Texas Southern – Oklahoma City
8 Providence vs. 9 S. Carolina
5 Dayton vs. 12 Valparaiso
4 Notre Dame vs. 13 Akron – Denver
3 Kentucky vs. 14 So. Dakota St. – St. Louis
6 USC vs. 11 Michigan
7 Syracuse vs. 10 Texas Tech
2 Iowa vs. 15 S.F. Austin – Des Moines

South

1 Xavier vs. 16 Bucknell – St. Louis
8 Florida vs. 9 Monmouth
5 Iowa State vs. 12 San Diego State
4 Oregon vs. 13 UALR – Spokane
3 UNC vs. 14 UAB – Raleigh
6 Baylor vs. 11 VCU/Butler
7 Texas A&M vs. 10 Wichita St.
2 Michigan St. vs. 15 New Mexico St. – Des Moines

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