Bracket Projection – February 25

Lots of bubblicious games this weekend.  Let’s look at the games that are most important for bracket purposes, and do a little resume comparison from last year.

Marquette at Providence

0323_duke_ky

I just really enjoy this picture.

I have both these teams in right now, and the winner of this one will find themselves in very good shape.  The loser will have plenty of work left to do.  Providence is only a 1.5-point home favorite.

Comparison #1

2016 Temple (in)
21-11, RPI: 63, SOS: 88, Top 50: 5-6, Top 100: 7-9, 2 bad losses

2017 Marquette
17-10, RPI: 69, SOS: 73, Top 50: 5-6, Top 100: 8-9, 1 bad loss

Comparison #2

2016 Syracuse (in)
19-13, RPI: 68, SOS: 39, Top 50: 5-6, Top 100: 8-10, 3 bad losses

2017 Providence
17-11, RPI: 53, SOS: 35, Top 50: 5-7, Top 100: 9-8, 3 bad losses

Northwestern at Indiana

tom-crean-kentucky-face.0.jpg

Well, we’re to the point where IU has to win this one, at Purdue, and at Ohio State just to get back into the mix.  That’s certainly not going to happen.  No comparison necessary, as Tan Tommy won’t be dancing.

Northwestern, on the other hand, probably just needs one more win to lock up a bid.  With Michigan and Purdue to close out the regular season, the ‘Cats would be wise to take care of business in Bloomington.

Illinois State at Northern Iowa

For the Redbirds to have any chance of an at-large, they need to avoid a loss to anyone not named Wichita State in the MVC Finals.  They are only 2-point favorites at UNI, who is 14-14.  Seems a bit low, don’t you think?

Comparison

2016 St. Mary’s (out)
27-5, RPI: 40, SOS: 163, NSOS: 165, Top 50: 2-2, Top 100: 6-3

2017 ISU
24-5, RPI: 35, SOS: 160, NSOS: 130, Top 50: 1-1, Top 100: 2-3

Kansas State at Oklahoma

bruceweber.jpg

Imagine his voice after this game…

KSU is in trouble.  They’ve lost 7 of their last 9, have a non-conference SOS of 244, and only have 4 Top 100 wins.  Lose in Norman and they may be toast.

Comparison 

2016 Michigan (last four in)
22-12, RPI: 58, SOS: 45, NSOS: 203, Top 50: 4-11, Top 100: 4-12

2017 KSU
17-11, RPI: 60, SOS: 46, NSOS: 244, Top 50: 3-8, Top 100: 4-11

Mississippi St at Vanderbilt

Bryce Drew’s squad is an incredibly interesting bubble case based on their fantastic SOS numbers (which surely won’t change after closing at Kentucky and vs. Florida).  They are currently the last team in our bracket, and actually have a comparable resume to last year.  If they beat MSU and knock off Florida in the finale, they may be the first team to get an at-large bid with 15 losses.

2016 Vandy (last four in)
19-13, RPI: 60, SOS: 44, NSOS: 42, Top 50: 2-7, Top 100: 7-10

2017 Vandy
15-13, RPI: 47, SOS: 3, NSOS: 1, Top 50: 4-6, Top 100: 10-12

UNC at Pittsburgh / FSU at Clemson / WVU at TCU

All three of the home teams are out right now, but someone is going to pick up a big win today.  Don’t be surprised if it is Pittsburgh…

UPDATED BRACKET – FEBRUARY 25

Last Four In:  Seton Hall, California, Illinois State, Vanderbilt

Next Nine:  Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, TCU, Kansas State, Georgia, Illinois, Pittsburgh, Clemson, Tennessee

MIDWEST

1 Kansas vs. 16 New Orleans/Mt. St. Mary’s – Tulsa
8 Miami vs. 9 Arkansas
5 Cincinnati vs. 12 Illinois St./Vanderbilt
4 Purdue vs. 13 Vermont – Milwaukee
3 Florida St. vs. 14 Florida Gulf Coast – Orlando
6 Creighton vs. 11 MTSU
7 St. Mary’s vs. 10 Syracuse
2 Arizona vs. 15 N. Dakota St. – Salt Lake City

WEST

1 Gonzaga vs. 16 Texas Southern – Salt Lake City
8 S. Carolina vs. 9 Northwestern
5 Notre Dame vs. 12 UNC Wilmington
4 West Virginia vs. 13 Princeton – Buffalo
3 Duke vs. 14 UNC Asheville – Greenville
6 Maryland vs. 11 Seton Hall/California
7 Oklahoma St. vs. 10 Xavier
2 Oregon vs. 15 CSU Bakersfield – Sacramento

EAST

1 Villanova vs. 16 NC Central – Buffalo
8 Virginia Tech vs. 9 Michigan
5 SMU vs. 12 Nevada
4 UCLA vs. 13 UT-Arlington – Sacramento
3 Florida vs. 14 E. Tennessee St. – Orlando
6 Wisconsin vs. 11 Providence
7 Iowa State vs. 10 USC
2 Louisville vs. 15 Oakland – Indianapolis

SOUTH

1 UNC vs. 16 Weber St./UC Irvine – Greenville
8 Dayton vs. 9 Michigan St.
5 Minnesota vs. 12 Monmouth
4 Butler vs. 13 Belmont – Milwaukee
3 Kentucky vs. 14 Akron – Indianapolis
6 Virginia vs. 11 Marquette
7 VCU vs. 10 Wichita St.
2 Baylor vs. 15 Bucknell – Tulsa

 

 

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