March 3 Bracket Projection / Blind Resumes

Nothing like some blind resumes to sort out the bubble.  Here we go.

BLIND RESUME #1

Lunardi has Team A in, and Team B in the next four out…you make the call.

Team A: 18-12, RPI: 36, KP: 48, SOS: 10, Top 50: 3-8, Top 100: 8-11, R/N Top 100: 3-7, 1 sub-100 loss

Team B: 18-12, RPI: 54, KP: 66, SOS: 6, Top 50: 5-8, Top 100: 10-12, R/N Top 100: 5-7, 0 sub-100 losses

I tend to value the quality of wins more than the computer numbers, and I think the committee does too.

Team A is Xavier
Team B is Illinois.

Give me Illinois, as Xavier is a hot mess without Sumner, but I have both in right now.

ill

Photo: Rick Danzl / AP

BLIND RESUME #2

Jerry Palm has Team A as a 10 seed, and Team B out. (This was before Utah absolutely trucked Cal).

Team A: 19-10, RPI: 51, KP: 46, SOS: 28, NSOS: 61, Top 50: 1-7, Top 100: 4-9, R/N Top 100: 2-6, 1 sub-100 loss

Team B: 17-13, RPI: 77, KP: 52, SOS: 57, NSOS: 194, Top 50: 6-7, Top 100: 9-10, R/N Top 100: 1-8, 3 sub-100 losses

This comes down to what the committee values more.  Team A has a better record, strength of schedule (somehow), and computer numbers.  Team B has significantly better wins in both quality and quantity.

Team A – California
Team B – Syracuse

First, how does Cal have the 28th best schedule when 16 of their 28 games have been against sub-100 teams?  Illinois’ resume actually looks better than both, don’t you think?

BLIND RESUME #3

As you know, I like to compare with some of the teams that made/missed the tournament last year.  I won’t cover the 2017 Wake Forest/2016 Vandy or the 2017 Kansas State/2016 Michigan comparisons…because I already have and they remain incredibly similar.

Team A (2017): 22-8, RPI: 38, SOS: 68, NSOS: 164, Top 50: 2-5, Top 100: 5-7, R/N Top 100: 2-4, 1 sub-100 loss

Team B (2016): 22-8, RPI: 30, SOS: 87, NSOS: 149, Top 50: 3-2, Top 100: 7-6, R/N Top 100: 3-4, 2 sub-100 losses

Team B missed the tournament, so Team A may be in trouble.

Team A:  USC (2017)
Team B: St. Bonaventure (2016)

To be fair, I think the Bonnies were snubbed last year, but this shows that USC is nowhere near safe.

BLIND RESUME #4

Another 2016/2017 comparison…

Team A (2017): 20-9, RPI: 42, SOS: 42, NSOS: 19, Top 50: 2-3, Top 100: 4-7, R/N Top 100: 1-6, 2 sub-100 losses

Team B (2016): 25-9, RPI: 42, SOS: 70, NSOS: 4, Top 50: 1-4, Top 100: 3-7, R/N Top 100: 2-4, 2 sub-100 losses

Team B is San Diego State, who also missed the tournament last year despite a very strong non-conference schedule.  The lack of big wins clearly hurt them.

Team A, is this year’s Rhode Island Rams.  They have very similar resumes, and at this point, I believe the result will be the same barring a big finish.

MARCH 3 BRACKET

Last Four In:  Xavier, Wake Forest, Illinois State, USC

Next Seven:  Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech, Kansas State, Rhode Island, Cal, Iowa, Georgia

MIDWEST

1 Kansas (1 overall) vs. 16 Fort Wayne – Tulsa
8 S. Carolina vs. 9 Michigan
5 Virginia vs. 12 Nevada
4 Purdue vs. 13 UT-Arlington – Milwaukee
3 Louisville vs. 14 Akron – Indy
6 Iowa State vs. 11 Xavier/USC
7 Miami vs. 10 Marquette
2 UCLA vs. 15 CSU Bakersfield – Sacramento

WEST

1 Oregon (4 overall) vs. 16 Texas Southern – Sacramento
8 Wisconsin vs. 9 Providence
5 Cincinnati vs. 12 UNC Wilmington
4 Florida State vs. 13 Belmont – Orlando
3 Butler vs. 14 E. Tennessee State – Milwaukee
6 Oklahoma St. vs. 11 Syracuse
7 Maryland vs. 10 Arkansas
2 Gonzaga vs. 15 E. Washington – Salt Lake City

SOUTH

1 UNC (3 overall) vs. 16 NC Central/UC Irvine – Greenville
8 Creighton vs. 9 VCU
5 Minnesota vs. 12 Wake Forest/Illinois State
4 WVU vs. 13 Princeton – Buffalo
3 Kentucky vs. 14 Florida Gulf Coast – Indy
6 Virginia Tech vs. 11 Illinois
7 St. Mary’s vs. 10 MTSU
2 Arizona vs. 15 Oakland – Salt Lake City

EAST

1 Villanova (2 overall) vs. 16 New Orleans/Mt. St. Mary’s – Buffalo
8 Northwestern vs. 9 Wichita State
5 Notre Dame vs. 12 Monmouth
4 Florida vs. 13 Vermont – Orlando
3 Duke vs. 14 Winthrop – Greenville
6 SMU vs. 11 Seton Hall
7 Dayton vs. 10 Michigan State
2 Baylor vs. 15 Bucknell – Tulsa

FULL DISCLOSURE

Already missed my first mid-major prediction, as UNC Asheville lost today thanks to a dude putting up 51 points.  That’s March.  Winthrop has been inserted in the bracket projection.

 

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One response to “March 3 Bracket Projection / Blind Resumes

  1. Pingback: School’s Out for March: Last Weekend Picks | HEAD VS GUT·

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