Bracket Update – February 26

There are a ton of teams still in the mix as we hit the last week of February.  By a ton, I currently have 22 teams fighting for 8 spots.

We did some blind resumes last week, so this week we’ll compare some teams that you may not think are on the bubble to teams that were squarely on it in 2017.

Comparison #1
Team A (2017) – 27-6, RPI: 35, SOS: 159, NSOS: 159, Top 50: 1-2, Top 100: 2-4
Team B (2018) – 27-4, RPI: 37, SOS: 159, NSOS: 181, Q1: 1-0, Q1+Q2: 3-2

Team A was Illinois State, who missed the tournament last year, even with a win over Wichita State.

Team B is St. Mary’s, who has the win at Gonzaga and not much else.  The Gaels better win the WCC tourney, because they can get passed.

bng-l-gaeltest-0126-6.jpg

Jock and the Gaels aren’t safe. (Jose Carlos Fajardo/Bay Area News Group)

Comparison #2
Team A (2017) – 20-12, RPI: 52, SOS: 47, NSOS: 187, Top 50: 6-8, Top 100: 8-9
Team B (2018) – 18-11, RPI: 43, SOS: 22, NSOS: 90, Q1: 4-7, Q1+Q2: 8-8

Both Team A and Team B is Providence, who was sent to Dayton as one of the last four in last year.  Last year, the Friars had three sub-100 losses, and they have hit some potholes again (three Q3/Q4 losses).  They do have home wins over Villanova and Xavier, but they aren’t as safe as it may seem.

Top Two Lines:

1 Seeds – Virginia (1), Villanova (2), Xavier (3), Kansas (4)
2 Seeds – UNC (5), Duke (6), Michigan State (7), Auburn (8)

The 1 seeds aren’t much of a debate right now.  Let’s focus on UNC’s ridiculous resume.  10 Q1 wins (second to KU), 9 road/neutral Q1+Q2 wins, and the second toughest schedule in the country.  They’re ahead of Dook in my eyes.

joelberry.jpeg

Joel Berry is good at basketball. (Photo: AP)

Last Four In:  St. Mary’s, Baylor, Texas, Washington

It’s tough right now.  I have Washington in over Louisville, due to their win at Kansas.  The Cards’ picked up their best win of the season at Virginia Tech on Saturday, but they need a marquee win.

Next Fourteen:  Louisville, Mississippi St., Marquette, Syracuse, Notre Dame, LSU, Utah, UCLA, Georgia, Nebraska, Oregon, W. Kentucky, Boise State, Temple

Let’s talk Nebraska, as they were a hot topic on Twitter after beating Penn State.  At 22-9, and 13-5 in the Big 14, you’d think they would be a lock, right?

Not even close.  19 of their 22 wins are Q3/Q4.  277th ranked non-conference schedule.  1-7 on the road against Q1/Q2 opponents.  The Huskers don’t have a tournament resume.

timmiles.jpeg

What do you mean we aren’t close to the field of 68? (Eric Francis/Getty Images)

To the bracket.  Note that some of the smaller conference champion projections will change in the next bracket, as I actually try to predict the 68 teams that will make the tournament.

South (Atlanta)

Charlotte 1 Virginia (1) 16 FGCU/Texas Southern
  8 Butler 9 MTSU
  5 Kentucky 12 Louisiana
Boise 4 WVU (16)  13 New Mexico St
Detroit 3 Purdue (9) 14 Bucknell
  6 Nevada 11 Baylor/Washington
  7 Seton Hall 10 Virginia Tech
Dallas 2 Auburn (8) 15 UCSB

East (Boston)

Pittsburgh 1 Villanova (2) 16 UNC Asheville
  8 Missouri 9 Miami
  5 Ohio State 12 Loyola-Chicago
Boise 4 Rhode Island (15) 13 Vermont
Wichita 3 Tennessee (12) 14 Charleston
  6 Houston 11 Providence
  7 Oklahoma 10 Arizona State
Charlotte 2 UNC (5) 15 Wagner

Midwest (Omaha)

Nashville 1 Xavier (3) 16 Penn/Hampton
  8 Texas A&M 9 Florida State
  5 Clemson 12 S. Dakota State
San Diego 4 Texas Tech (14) 13 Buffalo
Pittsburgh 3 Cincinnati (10) 14 Rider
  6 Florida 11 USC
  7 TCU 10 Alabama
Detroit 2 Michigan St (7) 15 Montana

West (LA)

Wichita 1 Kansas (4) 16 SF Austin
  8 Creighton 9 NC State
  5 Gonzaga 12 Texas/St. Mary’s
San Diego 4 Arizona (13) 13 Murray State
Dallas 3 Wichita State (11) 14 UNC Greensboro
  6 Michigan 11 Kansas State
  7 Arkansas 10 St. Bonaventure
Nashville 2 Duke (6) 15 No. Kentucky

 

 

 

 

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

w

Connecting to %s