Yes, it’s capitalized for a reason. Rothstein went a bit overboard with his “__ hours until March” tweets, but it’s certainly one of the best sports months of the year.
To the UD fans, I apologize for Joe Lunardi wrongfully getting your hopes up. At 0-5 against Q1, with 9 losses before that dud against URI, the Flyers weren’t close.
Let’s get to the blind resumes. You’ll see other places do them just comparing teams this year, which can be helpful, but I like to look at bubble teams from previous years to give a better idea of how the committee thinks. (Note: KP is KenPom; NON is Non-Conf SOS; BAD is Q3/Q4 losses)
Pretty close, right? Well, they are both Arizona State. In 2018, the Sun Devils were the second to last team in the field. They have serious work to do in order to overcome those four horrid losses.
Lunardi loves himself some St. Mary’s right now, apparently due to the metrics. I compared them with Syracuse, 2018’s last team in, and you can see that Cuse clearly had a better resume. First, the Gaels lost to Gonzaga by 48. Second, they aren’t going to beat Gonzaga, so that’s two more losses. Third, they have some really bad losses. Fourth, they just don’t have enough quality wins. Beat Duke West tonight and we can talk.
Ok, let’s do one from this year.
Team #1 is the first out, while Team #2 is the last in. #1 is Temple / #2 is Clemson. I still have no earthly idea how Clemson could be significantly higher in NET and KenPom, but significantly lower in RPI. Why does Clemson get the nod? Committee is going to use NET + Temple’s really bad non-conference SOS + no bad losses for Clemson.
Here’s a fun one. Six teams from one conference, compared with a team from that conference that barely missed last year.
The Big East is a hot mess this year, but that tournament could be absolutely bonkers. The 2018 team that barely missed is Marquette.
#1 – Seton Hall
#2 – Georgetown
#3 – Xavier
#4 – Creighton
#5 – Providence
#6 – Butler
As you’ll see below, I have Seton Hall barely in, and the other five lumped together outside the field. Watch out for Creighton and Xavier.
Let’s go to 2016 for this comparison (Q1 is RPI 1-50 / Q1+Q2 is 1-100 from 2016).
Had to dig to find someone with a similar resume to NC State. The 2016 version was South Carolina. You really have to try to make a non-conference schedule as pitiful as the Wolfpack’s. They are probably in right now because of how shitty the bubble is, but this is an ugly resume.
Last Four In: Arizona State, UCF, Utah State, Clemson
Next Eleven: Temple, Xavier, Georgetown, Furman, St. Mary’s, UNC Greensboro, Murray State
|Columbia||1 Virginia||16 St. Francis PA / Norfolk St|
|8 Auburn||9 St. John’s|
|5 Kansas State||12 Arizona St / Clemson|
|Hartford||4 Marquette||13 Hofstra|
|Des Moines||3 Michigan||14 Radford|
|6 Buffalo||11 Texas|
|7 Iowa||10 NC State|
|Tulsa||2 Houston||15 Texas State|
|SLC||1 Gonzaga||16 Sam Houston St|
|8 Louisville||9 Ohio State|
|5 Mississippi St||12 UCF / Utah State|
|San Jose||4 Virginia Tech||13 UC Irvine|
|Tulsa||3 LSU||14 S. Dakota State|
|6 Maryland||11 Seton Hall|
|7 Baylor||10 Florida|
|Jacksonville||2 UNC||15 Montana|
|Columbia||1 Duke||16 Prairie View / Qunnipiac|
|8 Ole Miss||9 VCU|
|5 Wisconsin||12 Belmont|
|SLC||4 Kansas||13 Old Dominion|
|Hartford||3 Purdue||14 Vermont|
|6 Villanova||11 Alabama|
|7 Cincinnati||10 TCU|
|Jacksonville||2 Tennessee||15 N. Kentucky|
|Columbus||1 Kentucky||16 Bucknell|
|8 Syracuse||9 Washington|
|5 Iowa State||12 Lipscomb|
|San Jose||4 Florida State||13 New Mexico St|
|Des Moines||3 Texas Tech||14 Yale|
|6 Nevada||11 Minnesota|
|7 Wofford||10 Oklahoma|
|Columbus||2 Michigan State||15 Drake|