MARCH 2 Bracket…and Blind Resumes

Yes, it’s capitalized for a reason.  Rothstein went a bit overboard with his “__ hours until March” tweets, but it’s certainly one of the best sports months of the year.

To the UD fans, I apologize for Joe Lunardi wrongfully getting your hopes up.  At 0-5 against Q1, with 9 losses before that dud against URI, the Flyers weren’t close.

Let’s get to the blind resumes.  You’ll see other places do them just comparing teams this year, which can be helpful, but I like to look at bubble teams from previous years to give a better idea of how the committee thinks.  (Note:  KP is KenPom; NON is Non-Conf SOS; BAD is Q3/Q4 losses)

Comp #1 NET KP RPI SOS NON Q1 Q1+Q2 BAD
2019 19-9 68 66 50 81 30 3-2 8-5 4
2018 20-11 45 66 72 102 3-4 8-9 2

Pretty close, right?  Well, they are both Arizona State.  In 2018, the Sun Devils were the second to last team in the field.  They have serious work to do in order to overcome those four horrid losses.

Comp #2 NET KP RPI SOS NON Q1 Q1+Q2 BAD
2019 20-10 39 35 47 66 48 1-5 3-7 3
2018 20-13 54 43 18 17 4-8 7-11 2

Lunardi loves himself some St. Mary’s right now, apparently due to the metrics.  I compared them with Syracuse, 2018’s last team in, and you can see that Cuse clearly had a better resume.  First, the Gaels lost to Gonzaga by 48.  Second, they aren’t going to beat Gonzaga, so that’s two more losses.  Third, they have some really bad losses.  Fourth, they just don’t have enough quality wins.  Beat Duke West tonight and we can talk.

Ok, let’s do one from this year.

Comp #3 NET KP RPI SOS NON Q1 Q1+Q2 BAD
#1 20-8 50 72 30 66 231 1-6 6-7 1
#2 17-11 41 31 54 41 117 1-8 5-11 0

Team #1 is the first out, while Team #2 is the last in.  #1 is Temple / #2 is Clemson.  I still have no earthly idea how Clemson could be significantly higher in NET and KenPom, but significantly lower in RPI.  Why does Clemson get the nod?  Committee is going to use NET + Temple’s really bad non-conference SOS + no bad losses for Clemson.

Here’s a fun one.  Six teams from one conference, compared with a team from that conference that barely missed last year.

Comp #4 NET KP RPI SOS NON Q1 Q1+Q2 BAD
2018 19-13 53 58 25 138 3-8 8-11 2
#1 16-11 63 61 55 45 69 3-6 10-8 3
#2 17-11 72 81 93 93 255 3-6 8-9 2
#3 16-13 71 71 79 48 158 3-8 9-10 3
#4 15-13 57 51 72 16 25 2-10 8-13 0
#5 16-13 78 87 82 46 165 4-7 8-12 1
#6 15-13 54 57 75 19 50 2-8 7-12 1

The Big East is a hot mess this year, but that tournament could be absolutely bonkers.  The 2018 team that barely missed is Marquette.

#1 – Seton Hall
#2 – Georgetown
#3 – Xavier
#4 – Creighton
#5 – Providence
#6 – Butler

As you’ll see below, I have Seton Hall barely in, and the other five lumped together outside the field.  Watch out for Creighton and Xavier.

Let’s go to 2016 for this comparison (Q1 is RPI 1-50 / Q1+Q2 is 1-100 from 2016).

Comp #5 NET KP RPI SOS NON Q1 Q1+Q2 BAD
2019 20-8 31 36 92 166 352 2-7 7-7 1
2016 24-8 58 57 159 300 1-1 8-5 3

Had to dig to find someone with a similar resume to NC State.  The 2016 version was South Carolina.  You really have to try to make a non-conference schedule as pitiful as the Wolfpack’s.  They are probably in right now because of how shitty the bubble is, but this is an ugly resume.

Last Four In:  Arizona State, UCF, Utah State, Clemson

Next Eleven:  Temple, Xavier, Georgetown,  Furman, St. Mary’s, UNC Greensboro, Murray State

EAST

Columbia 1 Virginia 16 St. Francis PA / Norfolk St
8 Auburn 9 St. John’s
5 Kansas State 12 Arizona St / Clemson
Hartford 4 Marquette 13 Hofstra
Des Moines 3 Michigan 14 Radford
6 Buffalo 11 Texas
7 Iowa 10 NC State
Tulsa 2 Houston 15 Texas State

WEST

SLC 1 Gonzaga 16 Sam Houston St
8 Louisville 9 Ohio State
5 Mississippi St 12 UCF / Utah State
San Jose 4 Virginia Tech 13 UC Irvine
Tulsa 3 LSU 14 S. Dakota State
6 Maryland 11 Seton Hall
7 Baylor 10 Florida
Jacksonville 2 UNC 15 Montana

SOUTH

Columbia 1 Duke 16 Prairie View / Qunnipiac
8 Ole Miss 9 VCU
5 Wisconsin 12 Belmont
SLC 4 Kansas 13 Old Dominion
Hartford 3 Purdue 14 Vermont
6 Villanova 11 Alabama
7 Cincinnati 10 TCU
Jacksonville 2 Tennessee 15 N. Kentucky

MIDWEST

Columbus 1 Kentucky 16 Bucknell
8 Syracuse 9 Washington
5 Iowa State 12 Lipscomb
San Jose 4 Florida State 13 New Mexico St
Des Moines 3 Texas Tech 14 Yale
6 Nevada 11 Minnesota
7 Wofford 10 Oklahoma
Columbus 2 Michigan State 15 Drake

 

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