(Photo credit: David Jablonski)
Some quick notes before today’s Top 16 reveal:
*Let’s start with the Flyers, who really could be anywhere from 5 to 12 today. I’ll make the case for each, and then explain why I have them slotted at 7.
First, some data and the HvG Top 16:
| NET | KP | SOS | NON | H | N | A | Q1 | ||
| 1 Baylor | 20-1 | 2 | 3 | 97 | 176 | 2-0 | 1-0 | 4-0 | 7-0 |
| 2 SDSU | 22-0 | 1 | 4 | 124 | 114 | 0-0 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 4-0 |
| 3 Kansas | 18-3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3-1 | 2-1 | 4-1 | 9-3 |
| 4 Gonzaga | 24-1 | 3 | 5 | 186 | 272 | 1-0 | 1-1 | 2-0 | 4-1 |
| 5 Louisville | 20-3 | 7 | 8 | 29 | 54 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 3-1 | 3-3 |
| 6 Duke | 19-3 | 6 | 2 | 18 | 7 | 0-1 | 1-0 | 3-0 | 4-1 |
| 7 Dayton | 20-2 | 5 | 6 | 41 | 23 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2-0 | 3-2 |
| 8 Seton Hall | 17-5 | 13 | 13 | 38 | 94 | 2-1 | 0-1 | 5-2 | 7-4 |
| 9 Maryland | 19-4 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 48 | 4-0 | 1-0 | 2-4 | 7-4 |
| 10 WVU | 18-4 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 1-0 | 3-0 | 0-3 | 4-3 |
| 11 Florida St | 19-3 | 14 | 18 | 49 | 87 | 0-0 | 1-0 | 3-2 | 4-2 |
| 12 Butler | 18-5 | 11 | 16 | 44 | 166 | 3-1 | 2-0 | 3-3 | 8-4 |
| 13 Villanova | 17-5 | 15 | 23 | 7 | 43 | 2-1 | 1-1 | 3-3 | 6-5 |
| 14 Oregon | 18-5 | 19 | 21 | 11 | 16 | 1-0 | 2-1 | 3-2 | 6-3 |
| 15 Auburn | 20-2 | 17 | 29 | 43 | 52 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3-2 |
| 16 Penn St | 17-5 | 20 | 14 | 120 | 335 | 2-0 | 1-0 | 3-3 | 6-3 |
The case for #5: Two reasons:
1. Strong NET and KenPom rankings. While they also use an average of other metrics, in the second year of the NET rankings they could rely heavily on it for the “sneak peek.” Has the committee really spent that much time digging in yet on these resumes? I highly doubt it.
2. It certainly can be argued that Dayton’s resume is comparable to Gonzaga’s. While they have wins over Arizona and Oregon, Duke West’s strength of schedule is just abysmal (SOS: 186 / NSOS: 272). Separating them and Dayton by two seed lines would be borderline criminal, but may happen.
The case for #12: The lack of Q1A wins.
Q1A wins are defined as a Top 15 NET home win, Top 25 neutral win, or Top 40 road win. Of the 12 teams referenced above, Dayton is the only team without a Q1A win. They could be penalized for a resume with St. Mary’s as the best win.
Why I have them at #7: Simply put, I don’t think the committee is going to stray too far from the NET rankings. The Flyers have solid SOS numbers (SOS: 41 / NSOS: 23) for a non-power team, and look the part of a 2-seed.
*Don’t be surprised if the ACC teams are slotted lower than expected. In these reveals, the committee has routinely favored teams from stronger conferences, which the ACC is not. Louisville (6), Duke (5) and Florida State (6) all have played less Q1 games, and therefore have less Q1 wins than teams from the Big 12, Big East and Big 10.
While I have Louisville/Duke as 2s, and Florida State as a 3, they all could slide a seed line.
*Some head-to-head results that are worth watching to see if they are taken into consideration at all:
- Louisville won at Duke.
- Seton Hall beat Maryland without Myles Powell.
- Penn State won at Michigan State this week (in case Sparty ends up in the Top 16).
To the bracket!
SOUTH (Houston)
| Omaha | 1 Baylor | 16 Robert Morris / NC A&T |
| 8 Wisconsin | 9 Florida | |
| Greensboro | 5 Kentucky | 12 Stanford / Memphis |
| 4 Villanova | 13 Akron | |
| Tampa | 3 Florida St | 14 No. Colorado |
| 6 Colorado | 11 Cincinnati | |
| Cleveland | 7 Illinois | 10 Oklahoma |
| 2 Dayton | 15 Wright State |
WEST (LA)
| Sacramento | 1 SDSU | 16 South Dakota St |
| 8 Arkansas | 9 Rhode Island | |
| Sacramento | 5 Michigan St | 12 Stephen F Austin |
| 4 Oregon | 13 North Texas | |
| St. Louis | 3 Butler | 14 UC Irvine |
| 6 Iowa | 11 Wichita St / Virginia | |
| Albany | 7 Rutgers | 10 Houston |
| 2 Seton Hall | 15 Murray St |
MIDWEST (Indy)
| Omaha | 1 Kansas | 16 Monmouth / Prairie View A&M |
| 8 Michigan | 9 Xavier | |
| Spokane | 5 Arizona | 12 ETSU |
| 4 Penn State | 13 Liberty | |
| Albany | 3 Maryland | 14 Winthrop |
| 6 Marquette | 11 Northern Iowa | |
| St. Louis | 7 BYU | 10 Purdue |
| 2 Louisville | 15 UALR |
EAST (New York)
| Spokane | 1 Gonzaga | 16 Colgate |
| 8 Texas Tech | 9 USC | |
| Tampa | 5 Creighton | 12 Yale |
| 4 Auburn | 13 Vermont | |
| Cleveland | 3 WVU | 14 New Mexico St |
| 6 LSU | 11 Indiana | |
| Greensboro | 7 Ohio State | 10 St. Mary’s |
| 2 Duke | 15 Hofstra |
HEAD VS GUT 